Breeders’ Cup 2009 - Can Quality Road Shock the World in the Classic?
About a month before the 2009 Kentucky Derby, there was one horse that everybody was talking about. “Did you see that horse in the Florida Derby? Did you see what he did?”
The name of the horse that was on everyone’s lips, the horse that was going to win the Derby and bring home the roses was Quality Road. Quality Road’s victory in the Grade I Florida Derby was indeed sensational. Coming off of his equally sensational victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, Quality Road stalked speedster Theregoesjoejoe before holding off the impeccably bred Dunkirk and won the Florida Derby in spectacular fashion.
It stamped the then James Jerkens trainee as a favorite the Run for the Roses. Of course, fate got in the way of Quality Road’s march to Kentucky Derby glory as an injury during a training session knocked him out of all three classic races.
He returned in August under the care of Todd Pletcher and since then he has been absolutely fantastic.
His first race back, in the Grade II Amsterdam, was a thing of beauty. He tracked the leaders before taking over in the stretch and showed no ill effects from the layoff. He beat Captain Candyman Can as the low-priced favorite in that race setting up a Travers’ showdown with the Belmont Stakes winning Summer Bird. Summer Bird had taken over Quality Road’s moniker as top three year old colt in the land, but the horseplayers weren’t fazed by Summer Bird’s accomplishments and made Quality Road the 1 ½ to 1 favorite in the race.
Although it was only his second race back, Quality Road ran exceptional again, finishing 3rd by 5 lengths. He was obviously short in the Travers’ and promised to run better in his next. He did exactly that when finishing 2nd, by a length, to Summer Bird again in the Jockey Gold Cup.
Now, Quality Road will carry the Todd Pletcher banner into the Breeders’ Cup 2009 Classic. What sort of shot does he really have?
If Pletcher’s past Breeders’ Cup history is any indication, Quality Road will probably lose by about 10 lengths in the Classic, but I prefer not to consider Pletcher’s Breeders’ Cup history.
To me, there are two factors that will determine Quality Road’s success in the Classic. First, is whether or not Pletcher has him ready to give a peak performance. Two, is whether or not Quality Road will face pace pressure up front.
When it comes to Pletcher’s getting the horse ready, there can be no doubt. Quality Road is sitting on a huge race. He ran his eyeballs out in the Grade I Jockey Gold Cup, but he didn’t move forward from his races in the Travers and the Amsterdam.
What that means is that Quality Road didn’t improve. He pretty much ran the race expected of him in the Jockey Gold Cup, the same race he ran in the Florida Derby and the same race he ran in the Amsterdam. The only difference is that he ran the 1 ¼ miles much easier in the Jockey Gold Cup than he did in the Travers. In other words, Quality Road’s got his lungs underneath him. The horse has every right to improve big time now that his lungs are back.
The other issue is one of pace. Unless Girolamo or Regal Ransom enter the fray in the Classic, Quality Road has only one other horse to contend with on the lead. Who is that horse? Summer Bird.
Quality Road proved in his last that he could take Summer Bird on and actually run a great race. He might just prove in the Classic that he is the better horse. This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is setting up as a classic confrontation between the two best 3 year old colts in the land, Quality Road and Summer Bird.
The two have met in the last two races with Summer Bird 2 and Quality Road 0. Horseplayers shouldn’t be surprised if the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby earlier in 2009 turns the tables on his chief rival and win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
