Breeders’ Cup Marathon

The likely favorite in the race, Delosvientos, won’t be running. That means that a lot of other horses suddenly become the likely chalk in this race.

In fact after scouring the pre-entries, I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s going to be hard to find the horse that goes off the favorite in this race. Online racebook fans will need to simply think about what fair online odds are available on the contenders and then go with the horse that makes the most sense based on those odds.

Let’s get to it!

Race-day: 10/25/2008

Santa Anita - - Race 1

Breeders’ Cup Marathon

$500,000

For Three Year Olds and Up

1 ½ mile on Pro-Ride

King of Rome - - 4/1 fair online odds

If Aidan O’Brien doesn’t send King of Rome to the Breeders’ Cup Turf, then there’s no doubt that he probably goes off the favorite in this race. He has back class and the switch from turf to Pro-Ride shouldn’t be that daunting for a horse with Forty Niner on his dam side. He may not like the Pro-Ride surface at all but he’s the best thing that this silly 1 ½ mile race has going for it. There won’t be a lot of interest from handicappers in this race on Saturday. That means the online betting pools won’t be nearly as large as they will be for some of the other races. King of Rome is the class. The class will probably prevail at this distance.

Fairbanks - - 5/1 fair online odds

Fairbanks has never run at 1 ½ miles but his breeding says that it shouldn’t be a problem. He got really lucky when Delosvientos decided not to go in this. With the exception of Jonesboro, Fairbanks is the lone speed horse in this race. Unlike Jonesboro, Fairbanks can actually rate some. He should be in perfect position at the top of the stretch to go right by Jonesboro for the victory. Why am I saying that at 5 to 1 or higher he deserves a wager? Because he tends to flop when he’s expected to do well. So don’t take the expected low online odds on this guy.

Muhannak - - 5/1 fair online odds

Here’s another Euro that could do some damage in this race. The Breeders’ Cup Marathon should have a short field. That would be perfect for Muhannak who has three wins in Europe over the Polytrack one being at this 1 ½ mile distance. That doesn’t mean he will automatically like the Pro-Ride surface, but it does mean that he could definitely run well in this. He’s not good enough to run in the turf. So, that won’t be an issue. Muhannak could be the play of the race.

Delightful Kiss - - 5/1 fair online odds

Like Muhannak, Delightful Kiss has a win over the Polytrack. Also, like Muhannak, Delightful Kiss has won a race at the 1 ½ mile distance. Delightful Kiss has shown the ability to win at a number of different distances. He will probably vie for favoritism with Fairbanks in this. In any case he could definitely win this because he can run a number of different styles. Two races ago he laid about three lengths off the pace. In his last race he laid seven lengths off the pace. He’s going to be tough to beat if he makes the race and even tougher if Fairbanks and Jonesboro cut out soft fractions.