Horse Racing Odds - Pro Ride Projections

With just a few days into the books on the new Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita, horse bettors have to resist the temptation to make blanket statements but by looking at where some of the winners were coming from and keying in on the words of the riders and trainers, players can get a slight feel of the direction we are headed.

To get a true feel of how the surface played early, let’s take it slowly.

On opening day there were 7 races run on the Pro-Ride and only two runners came from the clouds. In the second race, the horse that finished first, though eventually DQ’ED, was 6 and a half off the pace at the half-mile call, the staple for this survey, and the winner of the third came from dead last to score.

One winner came from a half-length off, one from 3 off, and the last three winners came from an average of just over 2 and half-lengths off the pace to get the money.

In the first race of the meet, the 2-year-old filly Costa Marta ran 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:16.59, winning a race for maidens. The runner just stalked pacesetter Heatology through early fractions of 22.27 and 45.34 seconds, then pulled clear in the final furlong to win by 3 1/2 lengths.

Rider Rafael Bejarano had this to say at the track, Rafael: "It's a little different. It's better than the last meeting. She was running to the end."

Reading in between the lines, it doesn’t sound like he’s totally sold on the surface.

Joe Talamo rode the eventual 4th place finishers in the opener and he also had his spin on the surface. Talamo: “They're getting over it. I don't think it will be a speed-favoring track like the big meeting here [last spring], or a come-from-behind track like Del Mar.”

On the second day of the meet, the track played a little different. Again, there were 7 races on the Pro-Ride and three horses went wire-to-wire.

Two races were run very phony in that horses got huge leads and the races were not true indications of the events that transpired.

In the 6th race, a horse opened up 12 and in the 7th a horse opened up 8 and half-lengths and in both cases, the way the track played can be thrown out the window.

On the third day of the meet, the surface really showed signs of tightening up. Six races were run on the Pro-Ride, 2 horses went all the way on the front end, 3 horses were within 2 lengths of the leader after a half-mile and the winner of the nightcap came from 3 lengths back to win.

The early evaluation horse players can hope for is that the track will play fair, with a slight lean toward tactical speed.

The horse bettors that will have an edge at this meet leading toward the Cup are those that can see the horses in person or on a direct feed to see with their own eyes how runners are gripping the surface.

John Shirreffs, who trained Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo and has been cautious with synthetic surfaces, trains over on the Cushion Track at Hollypark but lends keen insight to the Anita surface.

Shirreffs: “I’ve looked at the course a couple of times, but the one thing I like about any racetrack is the ability of the horse to get a hold of it and get a little rotation of the foot into the track. Some of the synthetics, they just stop the foot from going into the track at all, so that they don’t slide. So, there’s a little jarring and personally, I don’t like that for racehorses. I prefer that they get a little hold.”

Finally players can transfer this issue to how one football team prefers the speed of astro turf and one powerful squad may just want to good old grass to block tackles and keep the quarterback clean.

Horse bettors have to watch the races intently in the next few weeks.