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Today’s Horse Pick: Churchill Downs Race 9

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Horse Pick of the Day: Churchill Downs – Race 9

Race-day: 11/12/2009

Race-time: 4:34 pm EST

It’s not often that horseplayers can wager on an Optional Claiming $100,000 dollar sprint race on the turf, but that’s what Race 9 at Churchill Downs is on Thursday.

Churchill Downs, the site of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup, has a very quick turf course that plays towards speed. That doesn’t mean a closer can’t win on the turf course, but it does mean that closers must be set up in order to win.

Let’s take a look at Race 9 at Churchill Downs on Thursday.

Churchill Downs – Race 9

Optional Claiming $100,000

For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Not Won $30,050 Twice Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter or State Bred On The Turf Since April 30th or Claiming Price $100,000

5 furlongs on turf

Don’ttalktome - - 5/1 morning line odds

Don’ttalktome was last seen finishing 3rd by a single length in the Grade II Raven Run over Kenneland’s Polytrack going 7 furlongs. That was her first race off of a layoff. She should be much tighter in this, doesn’t need the lead to be successful, and is full of class. Jockey T.J. Thompson will need to be very careful around the turn, keeping her out of trouble, if he hopes to win this race. If some horses take Libor Lady on early and soften her up, this first time turfer figures to be right there at square odds.

Coy Cat - - 5/1 morning line odds

This is another classy gal who shows up in this race. Coy Cat hasn’t been seen since April of 2009 when Diamondrella thumped her easily in a stakes race. No worries. She’s been training beautifully and trainer Paul McGee is winning at 29% at the Churchill Downs meet. Also, top Churchill jock Corey Lanerie takes the call. Coy Cat has a big chance at winning this race on Thursday tracking the leaders and then kicking it into gear in the lane.

Libor Lady - - 2/1 morning line odds

At first glance she appears to be lone speed. Look again, and there appear to be at least two other horses in here, Dee’s Rose and Taletobetold, that could possibly go after her early. Is she faster than those two? Hell yeah! But Libor Lady also has a tendency to bounce in a race right after a monumental effort. Her effort in her last was definitely monumental as she recorded the top speed rating of her career. She’s an iffy wager to wire this classy field.

Wagering Strategy

I like Don’ttalktome to lay behind Libor Lady and then to take over in the lane. I will bet her to win and place. I will play an exacta box with Libor Lady, Coy Cat and Don’ttalktome.