Winning Right Back
Former Georgetown basketball coach John Thompson used to say ‘the wind blows hardest at the top of the mountain’ and horse bettors should take that adage to heart before just going for the now horse.
So often, veteran and novice horse bettors fall into the trap to just take the ‘hot’ horse, the horse that just won a race convincingly but the reality and the problem with this blind logic is that by nature most horses go up in class after a win and it’s much harder to put wins together.
Most horses after a win get over bet and so many of them do not run that same winning race right back.
This was a personal lesson that I learned years ago from one of the sharpest horsemen on the Southern Californian circuit, Mike Mitchell.
I was living down the beach at the time and ran into Mike in a local pub. A couple of days earlier he had a first-timer go out and annihilate a field winning for fun and I mentioned to him that the filly would be tough right back.
Mitchell: “Those were just maidens, now she will have to grow up in a hurry.”
In other words, be careful before digging in those pockets for a big bet next time.
Sure enough, the filly was all the rage on the track in her next start but she only showed brief speed before folding like a cheap suit.
One thing that can be confusing for horse bettors is the form cycle. It’s true but not obvious that the good horses hold their form longer, can perform at peak proficiency for a longer period of time and are therefore quality horses.
On the other end of the spectrum cheap horses stay good for the most part for about as long it takes to grab the TV remote.
Let’s look at 2 recent winners coast to coast. At Del Mar Rhodine’s Kid was coming off a 4-month layoff after winning a $25,000 maiden claimer.
He had trained steadily for this return, but his trainer, Bob Hess Jr. is only about 6% with returnees like this.
The runner went off as the favorite, pressed the issue early, but could not hold off the eventual winner.
Now lets head to Saratoga.
Joppa’s Flat took 21 races to break his maiden but he did it in impressive fashion over the Saratoga surface drawing away with a 100 Beyer.
On paper, it was an awesome feat but the runner was 34-1, the trainer is only at 8% for the year and it’s a brave new world when a horse looks around and the others in the field already have more experience vs. winners.
When the smoke cleared from the 1:22. 60 time of the 7-furlong race, the New York horse wagering, generally pretty savvy, sent the runner off at 2-1 and watched as the colt could not overcome an eventful trips and had to settle for third place.
It can be an easy thing to just bet on recent winners, but the successful players are on the never-ending search for that false favorite and try to take a stand against those types.
