Breeders’ Cup Wagering - Fly Emirates Breeders’ Cup Turf

Like every turf race on the Breeders’ Cup card, it makes sense to look for a long shot. Rarely do favorites win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. For every Fantastic Light, who won the race in 2001 or Kotashaan in 1993, there has been a Better Talk Now or a Shirocco.

That’s just the nature of the turf racing in the United States where winners and losers are often times decided by the pace of the race and not just the class of the animal. Online racebook fans will find that the horse I’ve chosen to win this race, on paper, looks like he has no chance.

But that’s how to make money in online sportsbook betting - - always bet overlays!

Let’s get to it!

Race-day: 10/25/2008

Santa Anita - - Race 8

Fly Emirates Breeders’ Cup Turf

$3,000,000

For Three Year Olds and Up

1 ½ miles on turf

Winchester - - 5/1 fair online odds

This three year old son of Theatrical should have absolutely no shot in this race. I mean, he’s three years old! Most turf stars, and you have to be a star to win this, don’t even begin to mature until their fourth year. Then, they really get things going in their fifth year. Not Winchester. He had a terrible race in the Grade I Irish Derby. So, what does trainer Dermot Weld do? He flies Winchester over to Arlington Park to run in the Grade I Secretariat at 1 ¼ miles on the turf. Winchester proceeds to demolish the field by 7 ¼ lengths. I mean, he absolutely blitzed those guys! Could he do something like that in this? No, he can’t. These horses are too good for him to demolish but what the Secretariat showed is that he’s good enough to beat these. I love Winchester in this race and, obviously, so does Dermot Weld who wouldn’t even consider putting a three year old up against these monsters unless he felt the colt had a shot. Of course the best thing about Winchester is that he could sit close to a very relaxed pace while his rivals have no choice but to close.

Soldier of Fortune - - 3/1 fair online odds

The best of Aidan O’Brien’s charges has everything going for him. He’s coming off of a third place finish in the Prix d’Le Arc Triomphe, he’s a former Grade I winner who always comes to race, and, oh, did I mention that Aidan O’Brien trains him? That’s the good news. The bad news is that he has never won a race on firm turf. He’s going to be on the quickest and firmest turf that he has ever felt in his life. I don’t see him being as effective. Like Street Boss in the sprint, this guy can definitely win, but his online odds are going to be too low for me to recommend a wager.

Grand Couturier - - 6/1 fair online odds

He is getting good again at the right time, but don’t let that brilliant last out victory fool you. He was running on yielding turf in that on a course that he obviously liked. He’s been training like a monster, though, so I wouldn’t put it past him to win this. He’s definitely a quality animal and out of the American contingent he’s the best but his ability to win this will be compromised because there doesn’t appear to be a lot of speed, he may not like the footing, and he’s a stubborn sort. He’s a dead closer. So if he likes the footing, then he will be able to close. If he doesn’t like the footing, he could lose by ten to fifteen lengths.

Eagle Mountain - - 6/1 fair online odds