in Horse Racing Betting Trends
Take Notes on the Program
by BetUS Staff
‘After Midnight’ is a rock song written by J. J. Cale and although the beautiful laidback boogie feel of the song is a soulful rocker, cagey horse bettors should have their mind on another kind of nocturnal blur named Midnight Lute.
Named for the University of Arizona basketball coach Lute Olson, Lute worked 7 furlongs at Del Mar on August 7 and he did something that very rarely happens, he broke the track record in the morning.
The drill was accomplished in 1:21.60 and the record is held by Lethal Heat at 1:22.46.
Heat, of course, will maintain the record since it was recorded in a race, but horse gamblers must circle Lute and double down with he shows up in the entries.
Two races come to mind where Midnight Lute could show up. He could race in the August 24 Pat O’Brien at Del Mar or in the Forego at Saratoga 6 days later.
Wherever he shows, he’ll be on time.
UNFLOWING LAVA
Horse bettors are going to miss Lava Man and not because he was the greatest claim of all time and then went on to earn over $5 million but because he has been a pure bet against for months now.
There is nothing like being right about a false favorite and Lava Man just did not have it in recent runs.
He only won one of his last 9 races and that win came by a nose. Sharp horse wagers that were against him saw him continually get hammered at the window as he went from 4 to 5 to 5-1 in that 9-race span.
When horse bettors can get a handle on a false favorite, often times on runners that are taking big drops in class, it can be the best of times at the windows to tee it up on the other logical contenders.
RAKED OVER
When the synthetic surfaces first came into play, one of the pluses was supposed to be that they required little maintenance.
That has not proven to be the case as the synthetic has been tinkered with more ofter than a Walt Disney character.
The main surface at Del Mar has played much faster than last year but there is one thing that horse bettors should look to in the final few weeks of the week.
Horse bettors that dabble at Del Mar should be aware of things the workers do for the track as it can have a profound effect on results.
Del Mar has told its horsemen that the Polytrack will be power harrowed and tilled on Tuesdays, the track's dark day, about every 3 weeks.
Two weeks ago, the track did the same kind of maintenance and it resulted in slower times the next racing day. The last time it was worked on in this way was on August 5 and as the day went on during the August 6 card, speed was not holding anywhere near as well as it did early in the afternoon.
The maintenance schedule calls for the next and possibly final renovation on August 26 and horse bettors should expect the main surface to play a bit sluggishly on that next racing day.
THE FUTURE
One of things that keeps you young in this sport is that every year, kind of like baseball, brings new hope. There is a new set of juveniles, a new group of sophomores aiming for the Triple Crown and new yearlings that are being gobbled at at the sales.
Of those potential future stars is a daughter of Storm Cat out of a dam named Totemic. The filly brought $1.5 milliion and was purchased by a guy I know.
On my first day of work for the Daily Racing Form in the late 1970s, I had lunch with some other employees including Barry Irwin.
Irwin, then a columist, went on to be one of first in the game putting together huge syndicates and his Team Valor continues to thrive.
Look for Irwin to find the right trainer for this recent purchase and expect her to come out running. He will try to syntidate her, a cinch, and the miss has a right to become a super nice horse.
She is a half sister to Fountain of Youth hero and near $600K earner Lil’s Lad and if she has any ability like that kin, she’ll make her mark on the game.
Horse bettors can get a clue as to what to look for in the paddock on any racing day but listening to Irwin’s evaulation of his new purchase.
“When you see a horse with a body like that, she’s got the body of a tremenous colt. Then when she walks, it’s hard to believe, there is no deviations, the pasterns are good.”
To clairify, the pastern is part of the horse between the fetlock joint and the hoof. The reason it is so important is because it is so vital to shock absorption. When the horse's front leg is grounded, the elbow and knee are locked. Therefore, the fetlock and pastern are responsible for all the absorption of concussive forces of a footfall. Together, they effectively distribute it among both the bones of the leg and the tendons and ligaments
