Weekend Stakes Action - Grade I Gazelle, Monmouth Stakes, Big Brown

Big Brown is back this weekend to show everybody how good he really is. Okay. I’m waiting. As an online racebook fan, I don’t remember the last time a single horse got so much press for simply being good but not great.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Big Brown is going to falter on the cushion track at Santa Anita come this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

It doesn’t matter if Curlin shows up for the race or not. There will be plenty of good horses ready to take down Big Brown when the race is run. In the mean time we’ve got to keep hearing Richard Dutrow talk and talk and talk some more about how great Big Brown is.

Before I get into my Monmouth Stakes, which is on the turf, I’m going to analyze the Grade I Gazelle Stakes at Belmont Park. It’s a short field this year, but there is a long shot that I like some in the race.

Let’s get to it!

Race-day: 9/13/2008

Belmont Park – Race 9

Grade I Gazelle Stakes

$250,000

For Fillies Three Years Old

1 1/8th miles on the dirt

The favorite no doubt will be Music Note who lost by a head to Proud Spell in her last race. On paper it appears that she’s got the rest of these fillies over a barrel, but I’m never one to shy away from a challenge. Who can beat Music Note in this? How about last year’s two year old celebrity filly, Country Star, who has been a huge disappointment in her three year old season. She no doubt got her feet back under her in her last and if online racebook fans remember last year, then they remember that this filly was one of the favorites to win the Kentucky Oaks in online future book betting. I think she could improve in this. Music Note finishes no worse than second. She’s the class. She’s the speed. She’s the monster. Hamsa, out of Fusaichi Pegasus, could prove herself worthy of some consideration in the future by finishing third. She’s coming off the shelf which is a famously winning move for trainer Barclay Tagg.

1. Country Star

2. Music Note

3. Hamsa

Monmouth Park – Race 9

$500,000

For Three Years Old and Up

1 1/8th miles turf

Without a doubt Big Brown will be a huge favorite in this. Name recognition goes a long way in horse racing. The general public will have a ton of money on Brown to pull out a victory. That means, of course, that real online racebook fans need to look elsewhere. Where is the value in this race? On Grade II winner Shakis who turned his form around big time in his last race. Shakis is a serious turf horse, not just a dirt runner who’s prepping for something in the future, and that should bode well for him in this race. He beat a solid group in his last and the 1 1/8th mile distance of this races should suit him perfectly. I love his chances to take down Big Brown in this. For second, I’m going to shun Big Brown again and go with Silver Tree. Jockey Eddie Castro is going to have to make a trip from the eleven hole, but if he does, then this professional horse has all of the tools to pull a shocker. His online odds will be juicy. For third, no Big Brown again. Instead, I love the looks of Proudinsky who should be about three or four lengths away from the speed. Proudinsky has been on the cusp of greatness. Trainer Bobby Frankel must feel that it’s worth another shot at stardom or else this guy would have shown up in an allowance race. Beware Frankel with these underrated turf runners. Why no Big Brown? This race is full of professional turf horses. Big Brown broke his maiden on the turf. That’s different than making a living on the turf. Brown is going to have his hands full in this race and the online betting odds are going to be very low.

1. Shakis

2. Silver Tree

3. Hamsa

Good Luck!