Breeders’ Cup Challenge Picks from Lexington, Kentucky

Padding Your Bankroll: Saturday October 10

The Saturday stakes takes us to Lexington, Kentucky today for the second day of the 17-day Keeneland meeting.

The fall Keeneland meet is one of the most prestigious meets of the year, with 19 stakes races scheduled over 17 days including nine that are designated Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races.

The winners of the nine races will earn guaranteed starting spots in the corresponding Breeders’ Cup races contested at Santa Anita on Nov. 6-7.

Four of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge races are on the ten race card today.

The races take added importance again this year, as Keeneland has a synthetic surface called polytrack.

The Breeders’ Cup will be contested on a similar synthetic surface called Pro Ride next month at Santa Anita.

The stakes today are deep in talent and excellent wagering races, giving us ample opportunities to pad our bankroll.

Here are two of my favorites on the day, both “Win and You’re In” races

Keeneland Race 6 Thoroughbred Club of America S. (G2) Post time 4:00 ET

#5 Bold Union 6/1

#8 Informed Decision 3/5

#6 Carlsbad 5/1

#7 Selva 6/1

#5 Bold Union appears to have the best shot of beating the short priced favorite in here. The filly is coming off an impressive victory last out in the Endine (G3) in the slop at Del Park, a gate to wire score. The filly has only been on poly once in her career, a fourth place finish in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies at Turfway, but that was at a mile and this gal has proved that sprinting is her game. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and while I am not generally a fan of backing speed types over this surface, she appears to have the best shot of beating the chalk in here.

#8 Informed Decision is coming off a sharp win in the Presque Isle Masters and now has a perfect five for five record on synthetic surfaces in her career. She is a perfect three for three over the main track here at Keeneland and she has run well everywhere except for Saratoga. If we put a line through her two starts at the Spa than we would see seven wins in a row. Two back at the Spa she caught slop and ran third behind a couple of very nice runners. The winner of that race was Music Note, who came back to win the Beldame (G1) on Oct. 3. The runner up was Indian Blessing, who came back to win the Gallant Bloom (G2) in her next start. She looks very imposing in here but at 3/5 let’s try to beat her for the top spot.

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 4/1 or better.

EX: 5,8 / 5,6,7,8

TRI: 5,8 / 5,6,7,8 / 4,5,6,7,8

Keeneland Race 8 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) Post time 5:10 ET)

#2 Backtalk 4/1

#1 Dixie Band 5/1

#7 Make Music for Me 6/1

#9 Hurricane Ike 15/1

#2 Backtalk will be trying two turns and poly for the first time here for the Amoss barn. The colt won the Sanford (G2) two back at Saratoga going six furlongs, then came up short in the stretch last out in the Hopeful (G1). He has been prepping at Churchill and then had a breeze over the surface here on Oct. 5. The colt looks like he should be able to handle two turns, at least pedigree wise. He is by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones and out of the stakes winning mare Apasionata ($155K), who has dropped just one other foal to race, the stakes winner Bsharpsonata ($595K), who could win on dirt, turf, slop, short, long, pretty much anything, winning 7 of 16 starts.