Expert Horse Racing Handicapper Picks - Play of the Day from Belmont
Padding Your Bankroll: Friday October 23
There are plenty of live longshots to go around today at Belmont Park, and our play of the day includes a couple of runners that should go off at generous prices.
Our Late Pick 3 play from Keeneland includes a couple of runners that are 12/1 on the morning line, meaning our modest $24 investment could pay handsome dividends if one of them happens to cross the wire first.
The middle leg of our Pick 3 play is the Valley View Stakes (G3), which had to be split into two races because so many three year old fillies showed up.
The seventh race is the first half of the split race with a full field of twelve.
The second division of the race also has a full field, giving us ample opportunity to pad our bankroll today.
Today's Play of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 5 Clm $25,000B (3:03 ET)
- #3 Admiralty 10/1
- #2 Don Misil 8/1
- #4 For All Who Conga 4/1
- #9 Point Lookout 6/1
Analysis: #3 Admiralty was the beaten fav last out, regressing in his second start off the bench and I am looking for him to bounce back here. He did not have much of a shot two back off the bench, running into a very deep field of Alw-2 optional claimers. The winner was Giralamo, who came back to win the Jerome (G2) and the third place finisher Ea is graded stakes placed.
We'll toss the trip to Del Park and look for better here. His career top fig came over the main track here when second in the Postponed last June. Worth a good look here at what should be a decent price.
#2 Don Misil pressed the early pace from the inside and faded to finish ninth last out in that key Alw-2 race. This colt owns back speed figs that are competitive and this looks like a much easier spot here facing $25K claimers that are non-winners of three.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,4,9
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,4,9 / 2,3,4,9,12
Today’s Pick 3 Play from Keeneland:
Starting in Race 8: $1: 3,10,11,12 / 6,9 / 2,3,10 = $24
KEE Race 8 OClm $80,000N3X (4:42 ET)
#12 Newport Harbour, #10 Northern Belle, #11 War Kill, #3 Nursery Rhyme
#12 Newport Harbour gets the call in yet another very wide open race. This filly passed this condition back in June at Churchill Downs going gate to wire. She is cutting back to a sprint which suits, and she may have regressed a bit last out off a hard fought neck loss two back in the Loudonville at the Spa.
She has only tried the fake stuff once in her career, a fourth place finish here back in '07 while still in the maiden ranks. The barn has been quiet at the meeting (1 for 14) but is showing a 37% win clip (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.
#10 Northern Belle raced evenly last out in a fifth place finish in the slop at Monmouth Park in the Miss Woodford. She owns back numbers that make her a good fit here and her lone go on poly produced a win here against Alw-1 foes at the spring meeting. She figures to bounce back here getting away from the slop.
KEE Race 9 Valley View S. G3 (5:13 ET)
#9 Aurora Lights, #6 Keertana
#9 Aurora Lights gets the call in the second half of this split race. The Woodbine shipper comes into the race off a sharp win in the Selena (G3) over polytrack and has the look of a filly on the improve. She has only tried turf once in her career, a distant 12th but that was in the maiden ranks and she found traffic troubles on the turf in that outing.
The $800K Keeneland purchase is a much better runner now and willing to give her another look on the turf here. She is a half to multiple stakes winner Master Command ($1.1 million).
#6 Keertana prompted the early pace and weakened to finish third last out in the Garden City (G1) over soft ground at Belmont Park. She has not missed landing in the money in her seven starts on turf and makes her third start of her current form cycle here. She faces easier here and is prove she can handle ground with some give to it. She won the Regret (G3) in June at Churchill Downs over ground labeled as good.
KEE Race 10 Clm $25,000 (5:44 ET)
#3 After Dark, #10 Coulee, #2 She's Yummy
#3 After Dark checked in fourth last out here a couple of weeks ago after a troubled trip. The mare vied for the early lead while in between runners, had to steady, and was shuffled back. She had to wait in traffic on the far turn and made up some ground late when finally getting some room to run. The mare performed well over the Tapeta at Presque Isle, winning four times over the stuff this year. She is worth another look here if we catch most of the 12/1 ML.
#10 Coulee ships in from Arlington where she pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth going a mile on the turf. She was coming back off a five month layoff and figures to be fitter second off the bench. The mare has won 6 of 16 starts on the synthetic surface and she beaten tougher than these on poly at Turfway earlier this year.
Price Plays From Belmont Park:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
- R1: #8 Ziggly 12/1
- R2: #8 Souma 15/1
- R3: #1 Lady Alexander 12/1
- R4: #2 Vamel 8/1
- R4: #12 Orthodontist 12/1
- R5: #3 Admiralty 10/1
- R5: #2 Don Misil 8/1
- R6: #6 Storm Hope 8/1
- R6: #7 Victory March 10/1
- R7: #2 Can’t Refuse 12/1
