Free Horse Plays from Aqueduct
National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along during the week and covers major stakes races on the weekends.
A new week starts today, and things are going to be frigid in New York. The temperatures are only going to hit the low 20’s and the winds are going to be blowing 2-30 miles per hour.
That is dangerously close to canceling weather, and I hope that does not happen, as there are a couple of solid wagering opportunities on today’s card as we attempt to pad our bankroll.
Our play of the day is a modest $25,000 maiden claiming race, and our Late Pick 3 ticket needs a bounce in the final leg and is a $24 investment.
Today's Play of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 6 Md $25,000 (2:52 et)
#1 Defarge / #1a Knot News 9/2
#7 Shot Gun Gal 6/1
#8 Way to Karakorum 7/2
#5 Green Harbor 5/1
Analysis: #1a Knot News set the early fractions, headed for home with a clear lead and I thought Ramon had the race locked up, not pushing his mount much until it was too late and the winner flew by him late. The winner was Irish Mama, who came back to beat $15K non-winners of two in her next outing at Philly on 1/10. The third and fifth place finisher also exited our top pick's last race to graduate in their next starts. Ramon departs to ride our second choice in here but Morales hits at a 19% clip when riding for Contessa. The filly has four sibs that have won, top earner Late Breaking News ($57K).
#7 Shot Gun Gal was bumped coming out of the gate in her debut, came five wide around the far turn and drifted out even farther in the stretch in a sixth place finish. The filly drops from $50K to $25K for the Rice barn that is 23% winners with second time starters. The filly is out of the stakes winner Shot Gun Favorite ($202K).
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,5,7,8
TRI: 1,7 / 1,5,7,8 / 1,2,5,7,8
Today’s Pick 3 Play from Aqueduct:
Starting in Race 7: $1: 3,4 / 3,5,6 / 1,4,5,6 = $24
AQU Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:20 et)
#3 Buffalo Tsunami, #4 Temore
#3 Buffalo Tsunami was a good second last out in his first trip on the inner, finishing ahead of five of these he faces again today. Two back he was the pacesetter before finishing a good second on the main track here. He should get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace here and may have enough to finish to earn his diploma in this spot. He has a pair of sibs that have raced, both winners, top earner Laura's Fury ($46K).
#4 Temore is making his debut for a sharp Finger Lakes outfit that is showing a 2 for 10 mark (with a +ROI) with first timers. If we go back five years the barn is 9 for 52 (17%) with horses making their debut. The colt is by Distinctive Pro (13% winners with debut runners) out of a Personal Flag mare that has dropped five runners, all winners, top earner Kimry Moor ($147K). A solid work including a couple of morning moves over at the training track at Belmont Park. He looks ready for his unveiling.
AQU Race 8 Alw $50,000s (3:49 et)
#6 She's My Fortune, #5 Kiss and Fly, #3 Faithful One
#6 She's My Fortune chased a gate to wire winner over an inside speed favoring racing strip last out in a runner up finish in her first go against winners. She was nearly four lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. She makes just her third career start and second off a 2 1/2 month break. Three works since her last outing and the Tony D. barn figures to have this one ready to fire as the likely favorite.
#5 Kiss and Fly beat $30K claimers last out and has to steady briefly at the 5/8's in that race. She drew away smartly late to win by four lengths and is the lone runner in here that has beaten winners. She was claimed out of her last start by the Brown barn that is 21% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. Ramon takes over and this filly is the lone runner in here with a win over the inner surface.
AQU Race 9 Clm $7,500 (4:18 et)
#6 Straightfromtheheart, #1 End of an Era / #1a Smokin Warrior, #5 Kamboo Man, #4 Hedge Fund
#6 Straightfromtheheart tracked the early pace, made a wide bid and weakened inside the final half furlong to finish fifth last out for this tag. It was his first go off the claim by the Levine barn that hits at a 36% clip (with a +ROI) second off the claim. This gelding has been popular at the claim box, taken five times since July. He owns back numbers that are a good fit here although they did come against NJ breds. He figures to move forward second off the claim and with a race on the inner under his belt, and the 12/1 ML looks fair enough to toss him in the mix here.
#1a Smokin Warrior beat Alw-1 foes last out shipping to Penn. The third place finisher in that race came back to beat Alw-1 foes in his next outing. The gelding has run four straight solid starts and has run well on the inner, landing in the exacta in 4 of 7 trips.
#5 Kamboo Man ran huge last out, popping a 108 Beyer going gate to wire over a muddy surface. His previous top speed fig was an 85. His BRIS and TM speed fig is equally lofty, but he seems likely to regress off that effort here.
Price Plays:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
Aqueduct
R4: #1 Our Uncle Pete 12/1
R5: #2 Donna’s Sandee 8/1
R7: #4 Temore 12/1
R9: #6 Straightfromtheheart 12/1
R9: #4 Hedge Fund 8/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
