Horse Pick of the Day: Santa Anita Race 7 Grade III Sham Stakes

The Grade III Sham Stakes was supposed to be run two Saturday’s ago but torrential rains caused a wipe-out. So, 3 year olds with designs on April’s Santa Anita Derby will take to the track this Saturday to go 1 1/8 th miles in the Sham.

Named after the bridesmaid to the brilliant Secretariat in both the 1973 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the Sham has started to become one of the more celebrated Kentucky Derby preps in the country. If you can win the Sham, the argument goes; you can win the Santa Anita Derby. If you can win the Santa Anita Derby, then you should be able to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

Race-time: 6:07 pm EST

Santa Anita – Race 7

Grade III Sham Stakes

$150,000

For Three Year Olds

1 1/8 th miles on Pro-Ride

Setsuko - - 7/2 fair betting odds

I was in love with Outlaw Man two weeks ago, but some time has led me to this Richard Mandella trained 3 year old. Why? Because I’ve had a chance to really think about what Papa Mandella is doing with this guy. Mandella, who is winning at a 24% clip at the meet, has slowly been teaching Setsuko how to rate 2 to 3 lengths off of the pace instead of 4 to 6 lengths off. That’s a smart thing to do. Jockey Rafael Bejarano got a feel for Setsuko in the horse’s last, an optional $80,000 claimer on the turf, and now should have no issue pushing the button at the right moment. Bejarano is a master at gauging the pace. This is Setsuko’s money run. I don’t expect him to fail.

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Outlaw Man - - 4/1 fair betting odds

The son of Forest Wildcat might be coming off of a maiden victory, but look at his connections and there’s no doubt that he’s well meant in the Grade III Sham Stakes. Jockey Garrett Gomez is simply the best in the world and trainer Kenny McPeek is 22% with his first time turf to all weather surface runners. Outlaw Man can either take the lead or lie behind the speed in this and he gets a much better draw then the horse that figures to press or take the lead from him early on in this race, Nextdoorneighbor. Outlaw Man has a nice shot to win this race.

Nextdoorneighbor - - 4/1 fair betting odds

Trainer Mike Machowsky has been on fire in 2010. At the current Santa Anita meet, his horses have gone 5-1-1 out of 13 races. That’s a win percentage of 38%. Nextdoorneighbor might also be the best horse in this race. The son of Lido Palace is coming off of a maiden victory but what a maiden victory it was! Nextdoorneighbor took the lead at the top of the stretch and then drew off for a 4 length victory. He’s one of the few speed types in here which means the pace could set up well for him, but something that horseplayers have to ponder is the fact that the jockey in his last race, Rafael Bejaranor, has taken off of him to ride Setsuko. That could be an issue.

Wagering Strategy

I like Setsuko and believe he will go off higher than the 7/2 odds I’m willing to take on him. I’m going to play him to win and place. I will also key him in an exacta over Outlaw Man and Nextdoorneighbor. I will reverse for less. I will key Setsuko in all 3 slots in the trifecta over a box made up of Outlaw Man, Nextdoorneighbor, likely chalk Kettle River, and the Bob Baffert trained Marcello.