Horse Racing Betting at Aqueduct Racetrack: February 24
It’s the dead of winter in New York, and often a Wednesday card run over the inner track can lead some horseplayers (myself included) to doze off for a quick nap.
That won’t be the case today.
The nine race card on tap this afternoon is chock full of live longshots and vulnerable favorites, which should lead to some handsome payoffs, and we would like to be on board.
The play of the day includes a pair of longshots as my top two selections, and the Late Horse Pick 3 includes a couple of horses that should go off at generous prices.
The middle leg of the three race sequence is a first level state bred allowance race. Rosie’s Promises is the 6/5 morning line favorite, and the filly is making her first start since last August.
I will try to beat her with longshot Stratton’s Girl, who is coming off a win versus cheaper, but looks capable of moving forward off that effort, and she figures to be a generous price.
Today's Play of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 5 Clm $16,000N1Y (2:24 ET)
#2 Rovic's Wealth 10/1
#3 Hurricane Heat 8/1
#1 Three in the Bag 8/5
#8 Air Lord 7/2
Analysis: #2 Rovic's Wealth makes his third start off the bench here and looks like he may be sitting on a good effort. Two back off the bench the gelding was outrun facing Alw-2 optional claimers, then last out showed some improvement in a fifth place finish versus $20K non winners of a race in six months. He finished off '09 by winning three in a row on the inner track, each against a tougher group than he faces here. He can handle a wet track.
#3 Hurricane Heat is coming off a third place finish against open $25K foes and now drops in price and faces restricted company here. The gelding had to check just inside the eighth pole when a small hole closed up, and then finished up well when angled to the outside. He appears to be heading in the right direction form wise and he won three of his first four trips on the inner track. Decent value on this guy is he goes off near his 8/1 ML.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 1,2,3,8
TRI: 2,3 / 1,2,3,8 / 1,2,3,7,8
Today’s Pick 3 Play from Aqueduct:
Starting in Race 7: $1: 5,8 / 1,8,9 / 1,4,6,7 = $24
AQU Race 7 Hcp $15,000s (3:20 ET)
#5 French Song, #8 Afleet Alexandra
#5 French Song was beaten just a nose last out in a game effort versus $20K claimers. The mare was claimed out of the race by the Brown barn that is 27% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. I like the barn and the jock switch and the 8/1 ML is not too bad either.
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#8 Afleet Alexandra is well spotted here dropping out of a state bred stake where the mare checked in fourth. She beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers two back off a two-month break. She makes her third start of her current form cycle and is the logical one to beat here, although the price will be light and she has to carry "No Go" around the track.
AQU Race 8 Alw $40,000N1X (3:49 ET)
#8 Stratton's Girl, #1 Rosie's Promises, #9 No More Stress
#8 Stratton's Girl went gate to wire to beat state bred $15K non winners of two last out in her first start for the Galluscio barn. She steps into a tougher spot here but five of these are three year olds and the favorite is coming back off a layoff. She looks primed for a good effort here in her third start of her current form cycle. She has a solid off track pedigree and will like her more if the track stays wet throughout the day, which is possible but not likely.
#1 Rosie's Promises makes her first start since last August at the Spa where she set the early fractions and weakened to finish third in her first start against winners. She has decent works on the morning tab for the Levine barn that is 18% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. She catches a weak group of state breds here for her first start off the bench, but we can't get too excited about the price, which likely is going to be even money or less.
AQU Race 9 Clm $7,500 (4:18 ET)
#6 Huge Party, #7 Fashion Queen, #1 O'Sotopretty / #1a Calling My Colors, #4 Stephen's Rhythm's
#6 Huge Party beat four of these she faces again today when taking a $7.5K claimer on Feb. 3 off a two month break. The effort was flattered when the runner up #7 Fashion Queen came back to win for this tag in her next outing on Feb. 12. The mare has now won three of six on the inner in her career and she looks capable of winning right back here, although we won't see the 17/1 price she went off at last out.
#7 Fashion Queen scored as our top pick last out as the favorite, which was her fourth win on the inner in nine career starts. The mare owns a solid pace profile throughout with good early and mid pace numbers. She has not run well on wet tracks, but by post time of this race the track figures to be fast.
Price Plays From Aqueduct:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 for horse wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
R2: #4 Florida Girl 15/1
R3: #4 Shoptate 8/1
R4: #7 Starlit Sea 12/1
R4: #6 Quoin 12/1
R5: #2 Rovic’s Wealth 10/1
R5: #3 Hurricane Heat 8/1
R6: #8 Senegal 8/1
R6: #5 Red Hook Bulldog 8/1
R7: #5 French Song 8/1
R7: #4 Crazy Thing 8/1
R8: #8 Stratton’s Girl 12/1
R8: #2 Northern Warrior 10/1
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