Horse Racing Betting Pick from Sunderland Park Race 6

Race-day: 2/9/2010

Race-time: 4:25 pm EST

One of the best ways to know if you’ll be able to find an overlay in a race is to check out the morning line odds on the horses in the race. If the morning line chalk isn’t going off at lower than 5 to 2 odds, then there’s a good chance that one, two or even three overlays might be found in the race.

Such is the case in Race 6 at Sunland Park on Tuesday where Holy Vesper is the 5 to 2 chalk on the morning line. Of course, I’ll be looking to bet a different horse in the BetUS online racebook.

Sunland Park – Race 6

Claiming $5,000 n3L

For Four Year Olds and Up Which Have Never Won Three Races

1 mile on dirt

Vespasian – 10/1 morning line odds

Vespasian lost by a nose two races ago and then, in his last race, went off as an 80 cents on the dollar favorite. Vespasian was gaining on the rail but it was too little too late for the 6 year old horse sired by Woodman. Trainer Chris Hartman is winning at a 21% clip at the meet and 30% with his beaten favorites. He’s also winning with 28% of his claimers. Vespasian has a terrific chance in this race and has to be considered a live long shot at the 10 to 1 morning line odds.

Marcade – 12/1 morning line odds

Marcade not only goes first time off the claim, but also first time on dirt. Will that move help the gelded son of Mizzen Mast? Maybe. The truth is that there’s no way to tell what Marcade will do but the horse ran good enough races last fall to win this. Marcade is definitely a flyer, but the gelding might be a flyer worth taking in this race because the changes could put him over the top.

Gun Trader – 15/1 morning line odds

Gun Trader has lost his last 5 races by a total of 79 ¼ lengths. That’s why the horse is 15 to 1 on the morning line. Does Gun Trader have any chance in this race? Yes, the horse does because its trainer, Doug Green is winning at a 26% clip in 2010 and wins with 33% of his horses off of the claim. This field isn’t full of any world-beaters. Why not take a shot and go for the big money?

Wagering Strategy

I like Vespasian to put in a good run. I will bet Vespasian to win and place. I will put Vespasian, Gun Trader and Marcade into an exacta and trifecta box. There’s no reason to separate them, to use one of the horses as a “key” horse, because all three figure to go off at better than decent odds.

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