Padding Your Bankroll on Wednesday November 19
National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and he will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers.
The weather may finally cooperate at the Big A today. The forecast is calling for sunny skies and I am hoping we are back on the turf.
We have three longshots in our Late Pick 3 sequence, giving us a decent shot of padding our bankroll. The play of the day is a claiming race for non winners of two.
It is the fifth race and if we can get our second choice Aqab in the mix near the 12/1 morning line, we could catch a nice payoff.
Today's Play of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 5 Clm $35,000N2L (2:20 et)
#4 Chobe 7/2
#8 Aqab 12/1
#6 Riptide 3/1
#13 Beckham Bend 7/2
Analysis: #4 Chobe stretches out to nine furlongs for his third start of his current form cycle. Last out the colt made a mild late rally to finish third last out going six furlongs behind repeat winner Exchanging Kisses, who beat $35K foes in his next outing on 11/7. The colt has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out, by Malibu Moon out of a stakes placed Crusader Sword mare. The colt also gets an upgrade in jocks fro the old guy to Maragh.
#8 Aqab came off a 5 1/2 month layoff to break his maiden against $40K maiden claimers at the Big M. The effort was flattered when the runner up Mashala returned to graduate in his next outing on 11/6 versus $30K maiden claimers. This guy was a $1.4 million purchase by Shadwell who did not have much luck until the layoff and the switch to the Pino barn, who dropped him in for a tag. Worth tossing in the mix if we see close to the 12/1 ML.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 4,6,8,13
TRI: 4,6 / 4,6,8,13 / 3,4,6,7,8,13
Today’s Pick 3 Play from Aqueduct:
Starting in Race 7: $1: 4,6 / 1,4,6,7 / 2,3,10 = $24
AQU Race 7 Hcp $25,000s (3:16 et)
#4 Night Stand, #6 Lemons of Love
#4 Night Stand ships in from Philly for a sharp barn in Gallegos, who has only started 56 runners this year, hitting at a 20% clip. The gelding was a game second last out in a $75K Pa stake, beaten a neck for the top spot. Regressed slightly off a near career top two back where he won a money allowance race. The gelding owns a solid pace profile throughout and I like the cut back to six furlongs where he is 3 for 16 in his career.
#6 Lemons of Love was beaten just a neck last out on MD Million Day while 3 1/4 lengths clear of the third place finisher Grand Champion, who returned to pop a 104 Beyer beating $100K optional claimers in his next start on 11/6 here at the Big A. The gelding beat Alw-4 company two back in NJ and has landed in the money in 18 of his 23 career starts. He fits well in this spot and Tony D. goes back to Lezcano, who was aboard for the win two back.
AQU Race 8 Four Bases S. (3:44 et)
#7 Operation Red Dawn, #1 Nergal, #4 Gimme Credit, #6 Hotstufanthensome
#7 Operation Red Dawn returns off a seven week break, his last start a third place finish in the G2 Kelso where the eight year old was caught out wide much of the trip and made a mild late run. This guy has finished in the money in his last three tries against graded stakes company and has landed in the money in 17 of his 19 starts on the lawn. This looks like the perfect spot here facing non winners of a graded stake at a mile or over on turf this year.
#1 Nergal made a good late run to finish a close up third last out in the G3 Cliff Hangar over a "good" turf at the Big M. The gelding has won 3 of 6 since coming to the U.S. but does appear to like ground with some give to it, which may be the case today. Also, note Ramon is off our top pick to ride this guy, our top two picks both sent out by Clement.
#4 Gimme Credit did not have a very good trip last out in the NY bred Mohawk. He had to wait for some running room on the far turn and was bumped and steadied looking for room while down along the rail inside the final furlong, losing all chance to get to the wire first. While he checked in seventh, he was beaten just 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot.
AQU Race 9 Md $25,000 (4:12 et)
#3 Castle Harbour, #2 Living Out a Dream / #2b Suttle Rich, #10 Big Megilla
#3 Castle Harbour tracked the early pace, finished evenly for third last out versus maiden special weight company, now adds blinkers, and drops in for a tag for the first time. The runner up in the race was Sir Sapphire, who returned to graduate versus maiden special weight company in his next start on 11/7. The gelding is out of the stakes placed Honey Brown, who has dropped three other foals to race, all winners, top earner Honey Green ($419K). I doubt this guy is going to be much of a price but he looks like he will be tough to beat in this spot.
#2b Suttle Rich dueled for the early lead and faded to finish fifth last out when dropping in for a tag in his second career start. He caught a main track that was favoring outside stalkers and closers that day. Blinkers come off. The entry mate #2 Living Out a Dream drops in for a tag and returns to dirt and he is better suited pedigree wise for a dirt sprint.
Price Plays:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
Aqueduct
R2: #10 Ultimate Event 8/1
R5: #8 Aqab 12/1
R6: #2 Arpana 10/1
R8: #4 Gimme Credit 15/1
R8: #6 Hotstufanthensome 10/1
R9: #2 Living Out a Dream / #2b Suttle Rich 30/1
R9: #9 Five Cases 8/1
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
