135th Kentucky Derby - Simplifying the most difficult race on earth

Simplifying the most difficult race on earth

The Kentucky Derby stands alone as the most difficult of all thoroughbred races to handicap. If it was not for the unparallel prestige and glory that is associated with picking the winner, my usual prudent advice would state that it is a gamble to avoid. There is simply not a very good chance that you are going to select the winner of a twenty horse race that possesses so many unknowns.

Many entrants in this contest are new to conventional dirt surfaces and some are coming off lengthy layoffs. There are equines fresh off the plane from Dubai and last minute entrants that were thrown into the mix because of defections due to unexpected injuries. Throw on top of this that in a race with twenty horses, the fleet will not necessarily be victorious. One can analyze the pace and trip scenarios until they can’t see straight but until that gate opens there is simply no telling what direction this score of horses will travel in.

Enough talk of impossibility though! The Derby rates as the Holy Grail of thoroughbred racing and to select the winner means significantly more than just cashing a ticket and having some extra pocket change. It means lifetime bragging rights and untold achievement. Many successful hardcore horseplayers I associate with still are searching for their first Derby winner and would trade their right arm to finally smell the roses. I have been fortunate enough to pick four Derby winners over the last dozen years (that is a very successful 33% win rate!) and I am about to share with you my methods.

There is a lot of talk lately about how modern players should avoid the “Derby Rules” because training methodology has changed over the last decade and I suppose there is some truth to this. Beware though that history does repeat itself and in the past 134 running’s of the run for the roses, many of the victors have had eerily similar profiles going into the race. Look for these pillars of historical truth to secure your best chance of success.

Horses training well at Churchill Downs the week of the Derby should garner the most attention. This year’s candidates are: I Want Revenge, Pioneer Of The Nile, Desert Party, Regal Ransom and Chocolate Candy.

Speed Figures are extremely pertinent; don’t listen to those who preach they are not. Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, West Side Bernie, Papa Clem and General Quarters all boast triple digit Beyer Speed Figures in their past running lines. Translation…these are very fast horses.

You need a horse with a pedigree to go the Derby distance of ten furlongs. Prime candidates are: I Want Revenge, Pioneer of the Nile, Dunkirk and Desert Party.

An old time tested Derby rule states to only bet a horse with a grade one win on their resume. There are three in this year’s edition of the Derby: I Want Revenge, Pioneer Of The Nile (2 Grade 1 Victories) and General Quarters.

I have only listed one horse that qualifies under all four of these criteria. I Want Revenge has the historical look of a Derby Champion. Use him in your exotics with other horses you fancy and pray that the Derby gods smile on you on May 2nd!