Handicapping the 134th Preakness Stakes
by BetUS Staff
Triple Crown are in for a rude awakening. As the 9-2 second choice on the morning line for the Preakness Stakes the question begs to be asked “Is Mine That Bird a good bet?” With a different jockey and the potential of a dry fast track at Pimlico come post time, the initial answer is no.
From a pace standpoint the Preakness may set up well for Mine That Bird whose closing style will be benefitted by potentially quick early fractions. Race favorite Rachel Alexandra will cut across the field to gun for the lead from post #13 and the speedy Big Drama in post #1 will most likely join her.
The fact remains though that many beaten Derby horses are going to try their luck against Mine That Bird again in the Preakness. This distinctly infers that the connections of the vanquished Derby horses think the Bird’s victory was a fluke.
If you don’t want to take even money on the Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra and think Mine That Bird was a one hit wonder you are still left with a couple of plausible angles to make the Preakness profitable. The first and most logical play that doesn’t include the top two choices is Pioneer of the Nile, listed at 5-1 on the morning line. The second place finisher in the Derby still has not raced on anything but synthetic surfaces excluding his one try in the slop at Churchill. A fast dry strip at Pimlico on Preakness Day might just be the remedy for the Santa Anita Derby winner to break through for trainer Bob Baffert.
The post time favorite for the Kentucky Derby was Friesan Fire. After fading to 18th position on the first Saturday in May, many backers jumped off of the chalk’s bandwagon but he may have had a valid excuse for the uncharacteristically poor performance. Trainer Larry Jones stated that his Louisiana Derby Champion did not take well to the wet track and after his sharp: 58 ½ second five furlong workout at Pimlico this week, it is not a stretch to say this gutsy equine will give a much better showing of himself at a 10-1 morning line in the Preakness.
In the months before the Kentucky Derby Musket Man won 5 of 6 races lifetime including a very impressive victory in the Grade 2 Illinois Derby. This extremely honest equine runs his eyeballs out every single time he is saddled and his third place finish in the Derby only a head behind Pioneer of the Nile indicates that he will give bettors another fair shake in the Preakness. Though he may be better suited for a minor award, the 10-1 morning line shot must sure to included in all exotics wagered.
The overall strategy for betting the Preakness Stakes depends on your main convictions about the Derby winner Mine That Bird and super Filly Rachel Alexandra. If Rachel runs back to her Oaks form, everyone else is running for second money. I believe that a trifecta key of Rachel Alexandra over Mine That Bird, Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man and Friesan Fire is a solid play. Note this bet requires that the filly would have to win and any of the four other horses would have to fill in the 2nd and 3rd spot.
Pioneerof the Nile is the most logical horse to beat the filly based on pace scenario and back class. A simple win bet on the “forgotten” horse in the field might prove to be very lucrative in the aftermath of the race.
