Kentucky Derby Recap - Mine That Bird Wins at 50 to 1
It should have been a foregone conclusion. After two straight years in which the favorite won the Kentucky Derby, Street Sense in 2007 and Big Brown in 2008, it should have been obvious that a long shot was going to take home the Run for the Roses.
It really should have been obvious when morning line favorite, I Want Revenge, scratched out of the Derby on the morning of the race. For some horseplayers, it was obvious, but Mine That Bird? Mine That Bird who was being trained by a guy named Bennie “Chip” Woolley? Mine That Bird who, forget winning, had only raced in one Grade I before and that was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he lost by 9 ¾ lengths?
Mine That Bird who’s only notable victory was a Grade III at Woodbine Racetrack in Canada? Mine That Bird who in his last race had lost by 3 ¼ lengths to Kelly Leak in an $800,000 non-graded stakes race at Sunland Park as a 13 to 1 underdog?
Mine that Bird?
Yes…Mine that Bird. By winning the 135th Kentucky Derby, Mine That Bird knocked some serious Derby wisdom out of the park. The Derby was his third race of the year, most past Derby winners had three preps. The Derby was his first Grade I or Grade II victory, most past Derby winners had at least a Grade II victory to their credit. Mine That Bird who had never run a Beyer Speed figure, what some horseplayers use as a measuring stick for Derby glory, of above 81.
Andrew Beyer himself had just written an article lambasting Pionnerof The Nile, the second place finisher in the Derby, for not having run a Beyer figure of at least three digits. Well, Mine That Bird hadn’t run a two digit figure with a 9 as the first number and won.
So, Mine That Bird won at odds of +5000 and now will contest the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Racecourse in less than two weeks. Will he win? Who knows, but without a doubt there should be a few horses that could definitely challenge him in the Preakness.
Preakness Stakes Look Ahead
- Pioneerof The Nile - - Bob Baffert’s charge ran on the worst part of the track, wide, and on the pace and still found a way to finish second. He’s a warrior and should relish the Pimlico Racetrack and a much smaller field.
- Musket Man - - Without a doubt, Musket Man proved his quality by finishing third in the Kentucky Derby. He made a nice move before flattening out and was closer to the pace than Mine That Bird. He too could love the Pimolico track. One thing to note is that Musket Man outran his sprinter’s pedigree this past Saturday and therefore should be given a huge shot in the Preakness where the length of the race is slightly shorter.
- Papa Clem - - The fourth place finisher in the Derby was super impressive by being right on the pace, not close to the rail where the speed bias was, and then still fighting it out with Musket Man and Pionneerof The Nile. He’s out of Smart Strike who sired Curlin, the 2007 winner of the Preakness Stakes.
- Hull - - The winner of the Derby Trial a week before the Kentucky Derby is undefeated and has the right style to win the Preakness stakes. He’ll be fresh while the others on this list really had to run this past Saturday.
- Regal Ransom - - If Godolphin keeps him around, a Preakness victory isn’t out of the question as he kept fighting and fighting in the lane after running a quarter mile in a ridiculous 22 and change.
- Dunkirk - - He lost all chance after breaking poorly in the Derby. He probably wouldn’t have won anyway, but it was a nice prep for a horse that should be able to navigate a much smaller field at Pimlico and still has a tremendous upside.
- I Want Revenge/Quality Road - - Both horses could make the Preakness but might wait for the Belmont. I love both equally and would look to either one as my first choice, right now, if they were confirmed for the second jewel of the Triple Crown in less than two weeks.
