Leading Lady - Preakness Recap and Belmont Preview

The filly beat the boys, but would she have if the race hadn’t set up for her?  That’s the big debate after Rachel Alexandra took it to 13 other three year olds in the second jewel of the Triple Crown, and became the first filly to win the Preakness since 1924.

It was a terrific victory for Rachel Alexandra who had to attend a fairly quick pace while going wide around the first turn.  But her trip wasn’t nearly as difficult as second place finisher Mine That Bird’s.  Mine That Bird’s second place finish in the Preakness without a doubt qualifies his Kentucky Derby victory.  The horse is just good.
Let’s re-cap the Preakness and then take a quick look forward to the third jewel of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes in three weeks.

Most Impressive Horse
Rachel Alexandra won the race but without a doubt at odds of +600 in the BetUS online racebook, Mine That Bird was the most impressive.  He ran about as well as could be expected and only lost the race because he ran out of ground.  He had to go between and around horses again and changed leads perfectly in the lane.  This is one very, very good horse and nobody would complain if the filly doesn’t give it a shot in the Belmont.  Mine That Bird, if he doesn’t get hurt, is on his way to an Eclipse Award for the top three year old in the country should he win the Belmont and this summer’s Travers Stakes at Saratoga.

As far as Rachel Alexandra is concerned she went off at 9/5 on race day which was better odds than what the racebook was offering earlier in the week.  She laid behind a good pace, went wide around the first turn, and still hung on for the victory.  It was obvious, though, that Mine That Bird had the momentum and would have caught Rachel Alexandra in another jump or two.

What Happened To…

A number of horses just didn’t do nearly as well as some bettors expected.  After a terrible work leading up to the Preakness, a lot of gamblers jumped off of Papa Clem.  Good thing because he didn’t run a lick.  His odds of +1200 were justified by his performance.

Friesan Fire was in perfect position on the backstretch tracking both Rachel Alexandra and Big Drama, but he never made a move.  He’s just not on the level of some of the others that were in this race.  At odds of +900, not a lot was expected from Friesan Fire.

Pioneerof The Nile appeared tired on the racetrack as soon as the gates opened and proved it by finishing 11th.  The usually stout son of Empire Maker had no punch at +900.
The lone Kentucky Derby starter who ran a superb race was Musket Man who once again finished 3rd.  He’s easily one of the best three year olds of his generation with a record of 5-0-3 out of 8 lifetime races. 

Belmont Look Ahead

So, who has the upper hand in the Belmont Stakes?  Without a doubt, unless Rachel Alexandra runs again, Mine That Bird is going to be a huge favorite in the third jewel of the Triple Crown.  He is out of a Belmont Stakes winner, Birdstone, and has shown a turn of foot that should make any horse shake in his shoes. With that being written, Rachel Alexandra on an easy lead at 1 ½ miles would most likely be tougher to beat in the Belmont than she was in the Preakness Stakes.

So, the key for horseplayers in regards to the Belmont Stakes will no doubt be the pace.  If Rachel Alexandra enters, and there is absolutely nobody else who can pressure her, then she wins the Belmont easily.  If someone pressures her upfront, then Mine That Bird has a chance to beat her.