Preakness Stakes Preview - Breaking Down the Favorite
Preakness Stakes: Pace, and Rachel Alexandra, Gets a Break With Defection of Hull
Rachel Alexandra, the -125 favorite in the BetUS online racebook to win this Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, is still an underlay in my estimation but her chances got increasingly better to win the Preakness after the defection of Hull.
Hull would have provided the Preakness with its only true front runner. Horses such as Big Drama, Rachel Alexandra and Tone It Down would have had no choice but to go after the undefeated son of Holy Bull early. That would have set things up for some of the stalkers that came out of the Kentucky Derby such as Papa Clem and Pioneerof The Nile.
No Hull means there won’t be a very hot pace in the Preakness and Rachel Alexandra gets a huge break in the pace department. It’s a good thing for Rachel Alexandra because she’ll need all of the help she can get in order to win the Preakness Stakes this Saturday.
Usually, I would try to come up with reasons for horseplayers to bet a long shot in a race like this. But right now I feel compelled to come up with a reason for horseplayers to not bet the chalk, Rachel Alexandra, in this race. The reason is simple. At -125, Rachel Alexandra is just a bad wager in this race.
Why? Read below to find out.
Reasons That Rachel Alexandra is an Underlay at -125 in the Sportsbook
1. Her Kentucky Oaks Victory - - Sure, it was breathtaking visually and she came out of it with a good Beyer Figure, but the Beyer Figures are overrated for some horseplayers, this one included, and it was only a 108. Yeah, that’s better than Mine That Bird’s in the Kentucky Derby. But Rachel ran against a bunch of chumps while Mine That Bird had to beat some very good three year olds in Pioneerof The Nile, Musket Man, Papa Clem, Dunkirk and the two Godolphin runners. Is anybody ready to say that Regal Ransom, who led the Kentucky Derby field into the stretch after a suicidal pace, wouldn’t have beaten Stone Legacy and Flying Spur, the two fillies that Rachel dispatched of in the Oaks, by 21 to 25 lengths at 1 1/8th miles if all he had to do was run freely around the track? Right. That’s my point.
2. Preakness History Says That She Loses - - When was the last time a filly won the Preakness? 1924. What are some of the fillies that have failed to win the Preakness? How about Genuine Risk, Winning Colors and Excellent Meeting. I’m not saying that a filly can’t win against the boys, that would be taking a stand that I don’t agree with, but I am saying that it is tougher for a 3-year old filly, lacking the seasoning and strength of a 4 year old filly or 5 year old mare, to beat the boys. Sure, Rags to Riches did so in the 2007 Belmont Stakes but that was after Street Sense softened up Curlin in the Preakness and Curlin tried to rally up the rail in the Belmont which was never his game.
3. The Expected Preakness Pace - - Sure, the defection of Hull helps her chances but it’s not like Big Drama, who should get the lead in the Preakness, is a slouch. He won five in a row before being disqualified in his last and has sprinter’s speed as evidenced by his disqualification to This One’s For Phil, a super fast sprinter out of the Richard Dutrow barn. If Rachel tries to lay a length off of Big Drama and then takes the lead at the top of the stretch, she’ll have to hold off Pioneerof The Nile, Papa Clem, Friesan Fire and Musket Man. Those are four tough horses to deal with.
4. The Preakness Field - - This is coming up as one of the toughest Preakness Stakes in years. Last year, nobody could challenge Big Brown because nobody was talented enough. The year before, everybody knew that the Preakness was a three horse race between Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun. In 2006, the only horse to challenge Barbaro was Bernardini and we all know what happened in that race. This year’s Preakness is chockfull of good horses. Mine That Bird could be legitimate after his Kentucky Derby victory because he’s sired by Birdstone. Pioneerof The Nile ran off four straight graded victories before his second place finish in the Derby. Musket Man won the Illinois and Tampa Bay derbies before trying Churchill Downs and Papa Clem is out of Smart Strike and is improving. Then, there’s Friesan Fire who tried the Derby after a 7 week lay off and should be ready to show his best for the Preakness. Oh, yes, there’s also Big Drama who had won 5 straight before his DQ in his last race. At odds of -125, Rachel Alexandra just can’t be considered for a win bet because she’s facing an incredibly gifted field.
