Belmont Stakes Wagering - Bet Now or Bet Later?

With Field Pretty Much Set It’s Time To Decide to Either Bet Now or Bet Later
Race-day:  6/6/2009

Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont Stakes.  With her absence, favoritism will undoubtedly fall to Mine That Bird.

That’s well and good, but the key for race fans is to find out exactly at what odds Mine That Bird is likely to go off at right before the Belmont Stakes.

That goes for every other perceived entrant in the race as the Sportsbook is offering odds right now on the horses to win the Belmont Stakes.

The big question?  Bet Now or Bet Later?

Let’s analyze the chances of some of the key contenders in the Belmont Stakes in terms of their odds in the sportsbook.

Belmont Stakes:  Bet Now or Bet Later?

Mine That Bird -150 - - Mine That Bird is going off at -150 right now in the BetUS Sportsbook.  Usually, most horseplayers would automatically decide to wait until race day before betting him, but Mine That Bird showed in the Preakness Stakes that he definitely has what it takes to win the Belmont.  Not only that but he gets what might be a favorable race set up, was sired by a former Belmont Champion, Birdstone, and gets the services of Calvin Borel, who rode him in his Kentucky Derby victory.  How will he do?  He’ll probably win, but the key is whether or not gamblers should bet him now or later.

I say wait only because taking 1 to 2 on a horse right now, which is what you’d be doing by taking -150 on Mine That Bird, is too early in the week.  Mine That Bird figures to not go off at less then 1 to 2.  4 to 5 looks more likely.  Wait on betting Mine That Bird to win the Belmont.

Bet Mine That Bird Later

Dunkirk +300 - - 3 to 1 looks and feels like low odds on a horse that was awful in the Kentucky Derby and doesn’t have a whole lot of experience.  Dunkirk does have tons of ability though, and because his grandfather was Unbridled, a winner at the Belmont Stakes, he should be able to put in a good run.  The key might be getting Dunkirk to show more of a motor in the early stages. 

In any case, Dunkirk won’t be going off at 3 to 1 in the Belmont Stakes. I just don’t see horseplayers jumping on board after that Kentucky Derby performance.  Dunkirk is a definite bet later.

Bet Dunkirk Later

Charitable Man +350 - - Charitable Man figures to be the speed of the Belmont Stakes.  He won’t necessarily have to be on the lead, but he figures to be close to it and no doubt will be Mine That Bird’s target, and Dunkirk’s perhaps, to run down for the victory.  He too is lightly raced, but unlike Dunkirk, he was sired by a Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, and has won over the Belmont surface as he took down the Belmont Stakes prep, the Peter Pan, about a month ago.

Charitable Man could become the horse that gamblers jump on in place of putting money on Mine That Bird.  If that happens, then Charitable Man goes off at no worse than 2 to 1 in this race.

I see Charitable Man as a bet now.  He has a legitimate shot to win and his odds should be lower on Belmont Day.