in Triple Crown Betting Trends

Derby inching closer

If you are interested in putting some cash down on the Run for the Roses, you have 68 days do make up your mind.

I’m not a big bettor when it comes to the big events in racing, I prefer the day-to-day races on a card. I find it much easier to see who the wise guys are betting in a race of little importance than a National event.

However, I do bet the Triple Crown races, as it makes it a lot of fun to have a wager going on the three Saturdays in the spring, for the three year olds.

When it comes to the Derby, you have the best of the best in horses, trainers, owners and breeders; all trying to make their future by winning it. Not to mention the jockeys who go all out to win the biggest race on the planet.

The Derby is not the biggest purse, but it carries more BANG for your career then any other.

Futures and fortunes are made as a result of a win on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. That makes it a tough race to call, as everyone is going all out and all involved have been pointed to that day.

I approach it this way: any horse you like will be a price, there will be twenty or so horses going, anything can happen. The place and show pools will be large.

So take two horses, bet them both across the board and box them in an exacta. The mutuals we have seen the last 10 years in the Derby have been spectacular, so take a shot.

I like to wait and see if there is an outsider who is getting played under his morning line.

Let’s say a 15/1 shot is sitting on the board at 7/1 or so, I’ll use him because someone is putting some serious money down to lower his odds on a huge betting day.

To me, that is good information, better then I can get from the racing form. All of you guys can read the form, but the form only tells you what happened in the past. The money going down on race day can tell you what will happen now.

Wise guys know who likes the track, who is settled in since his arrival, and other intangibles that we cannot know. So the trail of the money matters a lot to me.

Derby Trail:
Saturday at Oaklawn Park, the $250,000 Southwest Stakes was won by the favorite Lawyer Ron, whose owner and breeder (James T. Hines) died earlier this week in an accidental drowning.

Trainer Robert Holthus and jockey John McKee were pleased with the wire-to-wire win. The time was a slow 140.0 for the mile. Lawyer Ron set the pace and was not challenged, as 48.0, 113.3 is nothing to scare the other Derby hopefuls.

Lawyer Ron must now, like several others who have impressed so far this winter, meet the other “big boys”. You cannot win at Churchill if you have not stuck your nose in the major Derby preps that are coming, starting next week with the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. If a trainer has not pushed his horse into the mix by mid March, then forget him, you cannot sneak up on the Derby.

You must have at least three races this year and two of them should be over a mile in distance and against graded foes. If not, I wouldn't touch them.

For my picks in the coming tune-ups, the Florida Derby, California Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and others, contact me at jrclemente@hotmail.com.

Pete Cataldo can be heard every Wednesday at 3pm EST on BetUSradio.com.