Kentucky Derby Betting - Taking the Odds Now or on Race Day

Bet On Horses in the BetUS Racebook Today?  Or, Wait for Real Time Odds on Saturday?

One of the biggest issues facing all Kentucky Derby every year is whether or not to bet on the horse he or she likes to win the Derby a few days before or on the day of the race.

When it comes to the Derby, it’s a difficult question to answer because some horses go off at better odds in the sportsbook while others go off at better odds on the day of the race.

I’ve analyzed the true chances of each one of the horses below and have come up with a prediction as to where their odds will be on race day.  A few of the horses will go off at less odds than what they are going off at on Derby Day, I predict.  Some will go off at higher odds on Derby Day.

Let’s take a look at the horses.

Kentucky Derby:  Bet Now or Bet Later?

1. I Want Revenge +300 - - The Jeff Mullins’ trainee is looking super chalky for the Derby because he can press, stalk, close or flat out run with the front-runners.  After his Wood Memorial score, he will come into this race with the two highest Beyer Speed figures of any horse in the race.  Nobody even comes close.  There’s no doubting that he likes dirt because once he got a taste of it, he blossomed.  Mullins is a respectable trainer and having won a Kentucky Derby before, from a training perspective, isn’t all that important now after Richard Dutrow took home the prize with Big Brown last year.
   Predicted Derby Day Odds:  2/1 making I Want Revenge a Bet Now

2. Pioneerof The Nile +500 - - His daddy, Empire Maker, won the Belmont Stakes and his trainer, Bob Baffert, will be looking for his fourth Derby victory.  But after that, there are some serious knocks.  He was awfully headstrong in the Santa Anita Derby and that could cost him in the Kentucky Derby.  He also has never won on dirt and might have soft feet like his papa.  Another knock is that his Beyer Figures are super low, mainly because of the fact that he did his best running on Pro-Ride.  He did beat I Want Revenge by 1 ½ lengths when the two met in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.  All in all, he should be going off at higher odds on Derby Day because a lot of horseplayers won’t be able to get past the slow Beyer Figures, but the Baffert factor means he maintains.
   Predicted Derby Odds:  5/1 meaning that Pioneerof The Nile is a good Bet Nowor Bet Later.

3. Dunkirk +500 - - His speed figures are closest to I Want Revenge’s, but in reality no horse has won the Kentucky Derby having not raced at two since Apollo in 1882.   That’s a lot to overcome. Another issue is that he will not have raced for 5 weeks.  Put all of that together with the fact that he only has three lifetime races means that Dunkirk is up against it in the Derby.  In fact, it might be too much to overcome for most horseplayers.  He looks like an underlay in the BetUS online sportsbook to me.  He’ll go off at higher odds on May 2nd.
   Predicted Derby Odds:  6/1 making Dunkirk a Bet Later

4. Friesan Fire +500 - - I loved this Larry Jones’ trained son of A.P. Indy after his Louisiana Derby win, but by the time the gates open this Saturday for the 135th Kentucky Derby, Friesan Fire will have had 7 weeks to kick back and chill.  Friesan Fire just busted a 5 furlong workout in :57 on the Churchill Downs racetrack.  Some bettors might like the move.  More than some will hate the move saying that it’s just too fast.  This one I’m pretty sure about.  He’s a definite Bet Later.
   Predicted Derby Odds:  10/1 making Friesan Fire a Bet Later.

5. Papa Clem +1200 - - Respect is still at a premium for Papa Clem who finished second to Pioneerof The Nile, and in front of I Want Revenge, in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita earlier this year.  The Arkansas Derby winner isn’t being talked about.  That’s strange because his papa, Smart Strike, sired Curlin.  This one can go either way.  The sportsbook might have this one right but I do expect enough west coast gamblers to jump on his bandwagon this Saturday to bring him down just enough in terms of odds to make him a Bet Now.
   Predicted Derby Odds:  10/1 making Papa Clem a Bet Now

6. Desert Party +1500 - - The Godolphin color bearer has already been hyped to the gambling gills by his trainer, Saeed Bin Suroor, and some very knowledgeable horsemen.  Because he’s out of Street Cry, he has a serious shot to win the Derby, Street Cry sired 2007 Derby winner Street Sense, and there’s no doubting his ability to run on dirt.  This guy looked fantastic on the Churchill Downs’ racing strip the other day when working with Regal Ransom.  I love his chances and I’m not the only one.  He could be the wise guy horse on Derby Day although I predict that his stablemate, Regal Ransom, gets that moniker.  He’s a definite Bet Now.
   Predicted Derby Odds:  7/1 making Desert Party a Bet Now.

7. Chocolate Candy +1600 - - The son of Candy Ride has been hyped all year long by former jockey Gary Stevens.  Stevens knows what he’s talking about and Chocolate Candy has a shot at Kentucky Derby glory, but I have the feeling the he’s going to get lost in the shuffle because the Godolphin pair is going to be played to no end.  Candy Ride isn’t known as a brilliant sire, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer hasn’t saddled a true Derby contender before, and Pioneerof The Nile beat him more easily than it looked in the Santa Anita Derby.
   Predicted Derby Odds:  20/1 making Chocolate Candy a Bet Later

8. Regal Ransom +2500 - - Okay, the pace Kool-Aid is out and a lot…I mean, a lot…of horseplayers are drinking it.  Heck, I’ve had a few sips myself.  The truth about Regal Ransom is that he has a legitimate shot to wire the 135th Kentucky Derby if no horse goes with him.  I’m not sure if that will happen but trust me, a lot of horseplayers are going to look at his UAE Derby victory and see dollar signs.  That makes him the biggest mover on Derby Day.  If you like him, bet him now or else you’ll be watching his odds drop like a rocket on Derby Day.
   Predicted Derby Odds:  10/1 making Regal Ransom a Bet Now.