Wagering on the Kentucky Derby - Betting Tips for the Big Race

For those of us that follow horse racing all year round, the calls start coming early during Derby Week. Friends that do not follow horse racing at all want to get down on the big race.

The question I always hear is, “How should I bet the Kentucky Derby?”

Occasionally there are dumber questions, like “Is Smarty Jones running again this year?” or  “Are there any gray horses running?”

Usually friends and neighbors will ask something like, “If I bet $100, how should I bet it?”

In the old days, before the Internet and global warming, that question was easy to answer. There were win, place, show bets, and exactas.

A novice horseplayer has so many more options now. This year, in addition to win, place, show, and exactas, there are a slew of wagering options.

A bettor can play a trifecta, superfecta, Hi-5, daily doubles, Pick 3’s, Pick 4’s, or even a Pick 6.

So how am I going to play the next door neighbor’s C-note?

Here is the plan to bet $100. If you are a larger player and plan on playing $500, just multiple by five, a $1000 bankroll multiply by ten.

To start off, there is a Oaks-Derby double, which should offer good value. Although Rachel Alexandra will be a short priced favorite in the Oaks on Friday and will be tough to beat, the double should still pay well.

I would suggest a $5 double using two selections in each race, which would be a $20 investment.

For the Derby itself, that leaves us $80. I often am asked about betting to place or show, and for a race like the Derby, I do not recommended it.

It is a big day, and hitting a small place or show wager leads you to just one place after the Derby: the drive thru window at Taco Bell.

I would make a small win wager on your top pick, perhaps in the $20 range out of our $100 bankroll. That way, you are covered if you have the right horse but wrong exotics.

The average win payoff for the Derby winner this decade is $29. A $20 win wager on a horse paying just $18 would bring in a windfall of $180, guaranteeing a profit for the day.

That leaves us $60 for the exotics, and with the average exacta payoff this decade coming in at $1,488, that might be a good place to focus.

If we go three deep for the top spot and use six horses for the runner up spot, that would be a $30 ticket.

While I do not recommend such a ticket on an average race, with a 20-horse field you need to have more coverage.

You could also play two horses on top of perhaps eight runners for a $2 wager, and that ticket would run $28.

Let’s go with a 2 over 8 play for $28, which leaves us a bankroll of $32 to attempt to nail either the trifecta or superfecta.

The average trifecta payoff this decade checks in at $12,700, with the average superfecta payoff at $161,800.

While I may might be tempted to shoot for the moon with the superfecta, with my neighbors’ limited bankroll, I am going to shoot for the trifecta.

After all, if I can hand him a winning ticket for ten grand, I have to think he would probably mow my lawn for the rest of the summer to show his gratitude.