National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his daily column. He will feature at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.
After making a $1.20 profit with our Pick 3 ticket on Wednesday to start off the week, things got a bit better on Thursday. With scratches our Pick 3 ticket cost just $12 and we cashed for a $55.75 payoff. The winners paid $10.20, $6.80, and $7.70.
I was hoping for a few more bucks than that.
Kodiak Kowboy got home in my featured race of the day as my top selection, returning $6.80. We hit the exacta ($14.60) and trifecta ($28.20) as well.
I think we have a better chance of a more lucrative payoff in our Pick 3 play today.
Today's Featured Race of the Day:
SAR Race 8 Lake Placid S. G2 (4:47 et)
#2 Communique 8/1
#4 Lady Attack 5/2
#6 Christmas Kid 6/1
#7 Sharp Susan 7/2
Analysis: #2 Communique gets the call here in wide open race. Came up short last out in fourth place finish in the G1 American Oaks at Hollywood, beaten 2 3/4 lengths for the top spot. She has not beaten winners yet but in four stakes tries she has finished fourth or better. The cut back from 1 1/4 miles should suit and this is a easier group she faces here. Looks ready for a breakthrough effort here and we should catch a decent price.
#4 Lady Attack made a good late rally and came up a neck shy of the top spot last out in the G3 Lake George. The filly that beat her was Rutherienne, who has won 6 of her 7 career starts for Clement barn. She has picked up her game in a big way since the surface switch to the turf. In good hands with Howard barn with the main question mark being whether she sees enough pace in front of her in this spot.
#6 Christmas Kid tracked the early pace and flattened out in the stretch in third place finish in the VA Oaks behind winner Dreaming of Anna. She has a G1 win on her resume over poly and she makes her third start of her current form cycle here. She figures to be right up front in this race.
Wager: #2 to win at 9/2 or better. Exacta key of #2,#4 over #2,#4,#6,#7.
Saratoga Late Pick 3
The Play: Starting in R7: $1: 1,2,4 / 2,4,6,7 / 3,10 = $24
SAR Race 7 Alw $5,000s (4:14 et)
#1 Georgian, #2 Creole Beat, #4 Subtitles
#1 Georgian went gate to wire to beat $25K non winners of two last out in a sharp looking effort for Trombetta barn in his first start against winners. The runner up in the race was Dreamofthevalley, who returned to run second against $32K starter allowance foes on 8/5 at Del Park. Gelding owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks capable of winning right back for sharp barn. #2 Creole Beat also ships in from Del Park. Gelding wired $16K claimers last out earning a career top in his first start for Lake off the claim. The runner up Kiss a Coyote came back to beat $12.5K claimers thanks to a DQ. Steps into a tougher spot here but looks up to the task and picks up leading jock CVel and the 12/1 ML looks more than fair.
SAR Race 8 Lake Placid S. G2 (4:47 et)
#2 Communique, #4 Lady Attack, #6 Christmas Kid, #7 Sharp Susan
(For analysis see above)
SAR Race 9 Clm $35,000N3L (5:20 et)
#3 Survived, #10 Jeux de Danse
#3 Survived tracked the early pace from the rail and weakened to finish sixth last out over "good" ground against Alw-2 optional claimers. Two back was only beaten 3 3/4 lengths in G3 company and three back earned a career top beating Alw-1 company. Looks well spotted dropping in for a tag here and facing non winners of three. Would like to see all of the 3/1 ML. #10 Jeux de Danse ships in from Del Park for Peccarro barn. Last out the filly chased the early pace and weakened late to finish fourth against Alw-1 foes going nine furlongs. Like the cut back to a mile here and Johnny V. takes the call for a sharp outfit. Filly makes just her third career start on the lawn and while she needs a career top to be ion the mix here she still appears to have some upside and the price should be decent enough to toss her in the mix here.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
SAR R1: #2 Nad Bob Cat 10/1
SAR R2: #6 And a Gentleman 8/1
SAR R3: #4 He's Tough 8/1
SAR R4: #6 Hidden Glance 10/1
SAR R5: #5 Bees 8/1
SAR R7: #2 Creole Beat 12/1
SAR R8: #2 Communique 8/1
SAR R9: #10 Jeux de Danse 12/1
Weekly Track Bias Report Update For August 6-12
:
8/6/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 3 gate to wire
8/10/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 0 gate to wire
:
8/6/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 4 gate to wire
8/8/07: slight edge to runners off rail, 3-4 paths, 0 gate to wire
:
8/10/07: good edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
MikeD
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