Saratoga Horse Betting - There Is Still Time
by Brian Mulligan
There are just a few days left at the paradise known as horse bets.
First, let’s take a look at the turf. With two grass courses to contend with, bettors have to zero in on horses that can finish and are drawn right when they draw post positions.
Going short on turf, in races under a mile, the rail has been an absolute death trap. A total of 31 have tried to win from the fence, and 0 have gotten the job done. It seems the further out from the rail, the better you are going short. The most sprint turf winners came from post 7 while the 10 post has the best numbers through August 25 with 10 starters and 4 happy endings from that post.
Going long on the grass, and you can pretty much just turn the equation upside down. Most of the winners have come from the mid-pack posts from 3 to 7 but the outside has been horrible. Thirty have tried to win from posts 11 and 12 and only one came home on top.
In dirt routes, success for the bettors has come from posts 4, 5, and 6. Of the 32 dirt routes though 8/25, 18 winners have come from those slots. Sprinting on dirt has played rather fair but the edge goes to horses that are drawn outside of the other speed.
When runners break from the inside posts, their positions are compromised. In many cases, a rider will have to use his mount hard from the get go - there goes that runner’s energy.
Know that of the first 111 dirt sprints at the meeting, posts 6 through 8 accounted for 42 winners.
As far as the riders are concerned, it is amazing that the leading rider of the Spa meet this year, Cornelio Velasquez, is the best value play. This happens very rarely in this day and age and fans probably won’t catch on before the meet closes its curtains.
The average win payoff for Velasquez is $16.60 and he’s closely followed as far as value by Alan Garcia, at $16.50; Javier Castellano, at $12.90; with Eibar Coa and Ramon Dominguez tied at $12.40.
On the other end of the spectrum, the least value riders have been top names Jorge Velazquez, Garrett Gomez and Chicago invader Shaun Bridgemohan - all at single digits.
The trainers stir the drink at this and every meet and two value conditioners have excelled here. Thomas Bush is heads and above among the leaders with an average payoff of $17.50 while classy stakes trainer Christophe Clement is close behind with a $14.40 come back.
Horse betting fans have to concentrate on these final days and revel in the activity. Some bettors that are stuck for the meet will be trying to get out. Logical horses may be under-bet.
As the last few races dwindle down, try to go against the grain a bit and start peeking at the exotics using the key value trainers, horse racetrack and riders in combinations with the post positions that have been live.
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