The 135th Kentucky Derby - Pre-race and Derby Picks

The 135th running of the Kentucky Derby is finally here, and with a 20 horse field going to the post in the world’s most famous horse race, there may be no better opportunity all year to pad our bankroll.

Before we do, there is an appetizer race called the Eight Belle Stakes, named in honor of the ill fated filly who finished second in last year’s Derby:

CD Race 7 Eight Belles S. G3 (2:11 et)

#7 Loveyou Everybody 15/1

#1 Just Jenda 4/1

#4 Four Gifts 3/1

#8 Lady's Laughter 15/1

Analysis: #7 Loveyou Everybody is worth a look here at a nice price as she looks to rebound off a sixth place finish in the G2 Beaumont over the poly at Keeneland. That effort came off a four month break and now she returns to dirt and the prospect of catching an off track. Her best career effort came over a sloppy track here last fall when she beat Alw-1 company. She makes her second start off the bench for the McPeek barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with horses making their second start off a 61-180 day layoff. She is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track and will be even more attractive if the track does indeed come up wet.

#1 Just Jenda was not a threat last out when third behind Rachel Alexandra in the G2 Fantasy. The cut back to one turn looks like it is going to suit this gal. Two back she was up on the pace going two turns in the G3 Honeybee and drew clear late for the win, her first graded stakes victory. Her career top came in just her second career start when she won the Brandywine over a sloppy surface at Philly. She is out of a Pine Bluff mare that won on a wet track and she has one of the more appealing off track pedigrees in the field.

Wagering

WIN: #7 to win at 8/1 or better.

EX: 1,7 / 1,4,7,8

TRI: 1,7 / 1,4,7,8 / 1,3,4,7,8,10

CD Race 11 Kentucky Derby G1 (6:24 et)

#5 Hold Me Back 15/1

#6 Friesan Fire 5/1

#13 I Want Revenge 3/1

#10 Regal Ransom 30/1

#15 Dunkirk 4/1

#16 Pioneerof the Nile 4/1

#9 Join in the Dance 50/1

Analysis: #5 Hold Me Back has not really been on my radar screen the entire spring but the colt is coming into this race in good shape off a solid runner up finish behind General Quarters in the G1 Blue Grass. The colt was a $400K Keeneland purchase by Giant's Causeway out of the unraced Unbridled's Song mare Restraint. He did take advantage of a poly surface last out that appeared to favor horses coming from off the pace but he finished up well and looks like he will be able to handle the extra ground and the transition back to dirt. Many may dismiss him for his Remsen effort where he was fifth, his lone start on dirt. He could catch a wet track here and he is bred top and bottom to handle it. He has trained up to the race fine for hall of fame trainer Bill Mott and has a three time Derby winning rider in Desormeaux. He should end up going off at a generous price, and I am hoping he drifts up close to 18/1 or so, but may have to settle for less.

#6 Friesan Fire returns off a seven week break here after earning a career top winning the G2 Louisiana Derby, his third win in a row in the Big Easy. Trainer Larry Jones put a very quick work into this guy on April 27, going five furlongs in 57.4 breezing. The work was very similar to the final prep hard Spun got in '07 before running second to Street Sense in the Derby. This is another colt that I did not think I would have ranked this high, but I really like his off track pedigree. He is by A. P. Indy out of the Group 1 winner Bollinger ($410K), who is by Dehere.