in Triple Crown Free Picks

Twelve days out from the Belmont Stakes-G1 the news is as much about who won’t be running as who will be running. Curlin’s narrow victory over Street Sense in the Preakness-G1 not only ended any hope of a Triple Crown winner this year, but it also had wide-ranging affects on the field of starters for the final jewel.

As we stand right now, there are only four “confirmed” starters for the Belmont-G1. Those are: Curlin (Preakness winner, 3rd in the Derby), Imawildandcrazyguy (4th in the Derby at 28/1), Tiago (7th in the Kentucky Derby at 14/1) and Slew’s Tizzy (winner of the Lexington-G2 and Lone Star Derby-G3). Of course, we know there will be more than four enter the starting gate, but who will they be?

Let’s take a look:

Street Sense – Immediately after the Preakness Stakes-G1, trainer Carl Nafzger indicated they most likely would not run in the Belmont-G1. Of course, he easily could have been caught up in a moment of disappointment, and his stance has changed somewhat over the last week. While the chances of Street Sense running are now greater than they were one week ago, his presence in New York is still far from certain. Not running in the Belmont-G1 would allow Street Sense to get some rest and point for a mid-summer return in the Travers-G1. Nafzger has indicated that a decision will be made sometime this week.

Hard Spun – After finishing 2nd in the Derby-G1 and 3rd in the Preakness-G1, it does appear that this colt will run in the Belmont-G1, although a final decision is not expected before the weekend. And if he goes to New York he will have a new rider in Garret Gomez. Owner Rick Porter was clearly upset with the ride given by Mario Pino in the Preakness-G1, one which saw Pino make a bold move to the lead down the backstretch, leaving Hard Spun sputtering in the stretch. A much softer pace in the 1 ½-mile Belmont-G1 would give this colt a big chance.

Sightseeing – Bypassed the Derby-G1, despite finishing a close 2nd to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood Memorial-G1. He came back with a game win in the Peter Pan-G2 at Belmont and would seem ideally suited to the 1 ½-mile distance. He is unbeaten in two starts at Belmont and would have the home-court advantage. His connections, owner Ogden Phipps and trainer Shug McGaughey, are very patient with their horses and will only run if they feel they have a legitimate chance to win.

Rags to Riches – This filly has been mentioned as a potential Belmont-G1 starter since her emphatic win in the Kentucky Oaks-G1. Given trainer Todd Pletcher’s poor showing in both the Derby-G1 (highest finish was 6th among five starters) and the Preakness-G1 (highest finish was 5th with two starters) I think it is safe to say this gal is the best three-year old in the barn, of either sex!

Her sire, A. P. Indy, won the 1992 Belmont-G1, and her half-brother, Jazil, won the Belmont-G1 in 2006. But there have only been two fillies to ever win the Belmont (21 have tried), Ruthless in 1867 and Tanya in 1905. While Pletcher has yet to make a firm decision, a couple of jockey moves last week may indicate that this filly’s presence in the Belmont-G1 is unlikely — Pletcher’s main rider, John Velazquez, has been named to ride Slew’s Tizzy, and Rags to Riches’ regular rider Garret Gomez has been named aboard Hard Spun.

Circular Quay – Pletcher is still open to running this colt despite his 5th-place finish in the Preakness-G1 and 6th-place finish in the Derby-G1. Needing eight weeks of rest before the Derby-G1 many thought this colt was a “live runner” in the Preakness-G1 when Pletcher brought him back in two weeks. But, despite a very favorable pace scenario he simply was no factor. Seeing how he has yet to be competitive against top company at shorter distances his chances of winning the 1 ½-mile marathon in New York appear remote at best.

Of course, much can change in the days ahead. Just last week alone, we lost four potential starters – Great Hunter (ankle chip), Christobal (won’t ship from France), Nobiz Like Showbiz (will point for summer races) and Prom Shoes (will point for softer spots). Over the next week we will get firm decisions from those currently on the fence. In response, we may see a few other names thrown into the mix, although there doesn’t appear to be a three-year old “hidden out there” that is capable of knocking off the “Big Three.”

The presence of Rags to Riches would generate a great deal of excitement, but not nearly as much as rematch between Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun. Seeing these three talented colts lock horns for a third time would be good for the Belmont-G1, and more importantly, it would be good for racing.

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